A Dynamic Numerical Model for Real-Time Estimation of Latent Cognitive States Using Oculomotor Metrics

Estimating internal cognitive states from oculomotor data is fundamentally challenging due to their context-dependency and the complex relationship between various metrics. This paper proposes a dynamic numerical framework to model a task-specific behavioral signature and monitor deviations from it in real-time. The model integrates key oculomotor and motion metrics into a differential equation, yielding a continuous score that serves as an estimate of a latent cognitive state. By using tunable, heuristic parameters, our approach offers a transparent and adaptable alternative to opaque machine learning models. The framework’s strength lies in its ability to pinpoint objective changes in behavior, providing a potential tool for interpreting events like the onset of fatigue, distraction, or cognitive load.