Tharun Sankar
Tharun is a researcher on the Climate & Energy team focused on contrail avoidance.
Authored Publications
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A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis
Erica Brand
Sebastian Eastham
Carl Elkin
Thomas Dean
Zebediah Engberg
Ulrike Hager
Joe Ng
Dinesh Sanekommu
Marc Shapiro
Environmental Research Communications (2024)
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In this work we describe a scalable, automated system to determine from satellite data whether a given flight has made a persistent contrail.
The system works by comparing flight segments to contrails detected by a computer vision algorithm running on images from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. We develop a `flight matching' algorithm and use it to label each flight segment as a `match' or `non-match'. We perform this analysis on 1.6 million flight segments and compare these labels to existing contrail prediction methods based on weather forecast data. The result is an analysis of which flights make persistent contrails several orders of magnitude larger than any previous work. We find that current contrail prediction models fail to correctly predict whether we will match a contrail in many cases.
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The effect of uncertainty in humidity and model parameters on the prediction of contrail energy forcing
Marc Shapiro
Zebediah Engberg
Marc E.J. Stettler
Roger Teoh
Ulrich Schumann
Susanne Rohs
Erica Brand
Environmental Research Communications, 6 (2024), pp. 095015
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Previous work has shown that while the net effect of aircraft condensation trails (contrails) on the climate is warming, the exact magnitude of the energy forcing per meter of contrail remains uncertain. In this paper, we explore the skill of a Lagrangian contrail model (CoCiP) in identifying flight segments with high contrail energy forcing. We find that skill is greater than climatological predictions alone, even accounting for uncertainty in weather fields and model parameters. We estimate the uncertainty due to humidity by using the ensemble ERA5 weather reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as Monte Carlo inputs to CoCiP. We unbias and correct under-dispersion on the ERA5 humidity data by forcing a match to the distribution of in situ humidity measurements taken at cruising altitude. We take CoCiP energy forcing estimates calculated using one of the ensemble members as a proxy for ground truth, and report the skill of CoCiP in identifying segments with large positive proxy energy forcing. We further estimate the uncertainty due to model parameters in CoCiP by performing Monte Carlo simulations with CoCiP model parameters drawn from uncertainty distributions consistent with the literature. When CoCiP outputs are averaged over seasons to form climatological predictions, the skill in predicting the proxy is 44%, while the skill of per-flight CoCiP outputs is 84%. If these results carry over to the true (unknown) contrail EF, they indicate that per-flight energy forcing predictions can reduce the number of potential contrail avoidance route adjustments by 2x, hence reducing both the cost and fuel impact of contrail avoidance.
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Next Day Wildfire Spread: A Machine Learning Dataset to Predict Wildfire Spreading From Remote-Sensing Data
Fantine Huot
Lily Hu
Matthias Ihme
Yi-fan Chen
IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 60 (2022), pp. 1-13
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Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present “Next Day Wildfire Spread,” a curated, large-scale, multivariate dataset of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data across the United States. In contrast to existing fire datasets based on Earth observation satellites, our dataset combines 2-D fire data with multiple explanatory variables (e.g., topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, and population density) aligned over 2-D regions, providing a feature-rich dataset for machine learning. To demonstrate the usefulness of this dataset, we implement a neural network that takes advantage of the spatial information of these data to predict wildfire spread. We compare the performance of the neural network with other machine learning models: logistic regression and random forest. This dataset can be used as a benchmark for developing wildfire propagation models based on remote-sensing data for a lead time of one day.
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