Publications
Our teams aspire to make discoveries that impact everyone, and core to our approach is sharing our research and tools to fuel progress in the field.
Our teams aspire to make discoveries that impact everyone, and core to our approach is sharing our research and tools to fuel progress in the field.
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1 - 15 of 363 publications
Neural general circulation models for modeling precipitation
Stephan Hoyer
Dmitrii Kochkov
Janni Yuval
Ian Langmore
Science Advances (2026)
Preview abstract
Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. While hybrid models combining machine learning and physics have emerged with the premise of improving precipitation simulations, none have proven sufficiently skillful or stable enough to outperform existing models in simulating precipitation.
Here, we present the first hybrid model that is trained directly on precipitation observations. The model runs at 2.8 degrees resolution and is built on the differentiable NeuralGCM framework. This model is stable for decadal simulations and demonstrates significant improvements over existing GCMs, ERA5 reanalysis, and a Global Cloud-Resolving Model in simulating precipitation. Our approach yields reduced biases, a more realistic precipitation distribution, improved representation of extremes, and a more accurate diurnal cycle.
Furthermore, it outperforms the ECMWF ensemble for mid-range weather forecasting.
This advance paves the way for more reliable simulations of current climate and for the ability to fully utilize the abundance of existing observations to further improve GCMs.
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Expert evaluation of LLM world models: A high-Tc superconductivity case study
Haoyu Guo
Maria Tikhanovskaya
Paul Raccuglia
Alexey Vlaskin
Chris Co
Scott Ellsworth
Matthew Abraham
Lizzie Dorfman
Peter Armitage
Chunhan Feng
Antoine Georges
Olivier Gingras
Dominik Kiese
Steve Kivelson
Vadim Oganesyan
Brad Ramshaw
Subir Sachdev
Senthil Todadri
John Tranquada
Eun-Ah Kim
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026)
Preview abstract
Large Language Models (LLMs) show great promise as a powerful tool for scientific literature exploration. However, their effectiveness in providing scientifically accurate and comprehensive answers to complex questions within specialized domains remains an active area of research. This work evaluates the performance of six different LLM-based systems for answering scientific literature questions, including commercially available closed models and a custom retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) system capable of retrieving images alongside text. We conduct a rigorous expert evaluation of the systems in the domain of high-temperature cuprate superconductors, a research area that involves material science, experimental physics, computation, and theoretical physics. We use an expert-curated database of 1726 scientific papers and a set of 67 expert-formulated questions. The evaluation employs a multi-faceted rubric assessing balanced perspectives, factual comprehensiveness, succinctness, evidentiary support, and image relevance. Our results demonstrate that RAG-based systems, powered by curated data and multimodal retrieval, outperform existing closed models across key metrics, particularly in providing comprehensive and well-supported answers, and in retrieving relevant visual information. This study provides valuable insights into designing and evaluating specialized scientific literature understanding systems, particularly with expert involvement, while also highlighting the importance of rich, domain-specific data in such systems.
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An AI system to help scientists write expert-level empirical software
Eser Aygün
Anastasiya Belyaeva
Gheorghe Comanici
Hao Cui
Renee Johnston
Zahra Shamsi
David Smalling
James Thompson
Sarah Martinson
Lai Wei
Yuchen Zhou
Qian-Ze Zhu
Matthew Abraham
Erica Brand
Anna Bulanova
Jeffrey Cardille
Chris Co
Scott Ellsworth
Grace Joseph
Malcolm Kane
Ryan Krueger
Johan Kartiwa
Jackson Cui
Paul Raccuglia
Julie Wang
Kat Chou
James Manyika
Lizzie Dorfman
Shibl Mourad
Nature (2026)
Preview abstract
The cycle of scientific discovery is frequently bottlenecked by the slow, manual creation of software to support computational experiments. To address this, we present Empirical Research Assistance (ERA), an AI system that creates expert-level scientific software whose goal is to maximize a quality metric. The system uses a Large Language Model (LLM) and Tree Search (TS) to systematically improve the quality metric and intelligently navigate the large space of possible solutions. ERA achieves expert-level results when it explores and integrates complex research ideas from external sources. The effectiveness of tree search is demonstrated across a diverse range of tasks. In bioinformatics, ERA discovered 40 novel methods for single-cell data analysis that outperformed the top human-developed methods on a public leaderboard. In epidemiology, ERA generated 14 models that outperformed the CDC ensemble and all other individual models for forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations. ERA also produced expert-level software for geospatial analysis, neural activity prediction in zebrafish, and numerical solution of integrals, and a novel rule-based construction for time series forecasting. By devising and implementing novel solutions to diverse tasks, ERA represents a significant step towards accelerating scientific progress.
Keywords: Tree Search, Generative AI, Scorable Scientific Tasks, Empirical Software
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SAC133 - SSAC Comments on Proposed Root KSK Algorithm Rollover
Wes Hardaker
Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), ICANN Security and Stability Advisory Committee (SSAC) Reports and Advisories (2026), pp. 9
Preview abstract
The SSAC supports the transition from RSA with SHA-256 (Algorithm 8) to ECDSA P-256
with SHA-256 (Algorithm 13) as the cryptographic algorithm for the RootKSK. The root zone
has relied on RSA-based algorithms since DNSSEC signing began in 2010. The algorithm did
not change during the first KSK rollover in 2018 or during the second rollover currently
underway and scheduled to complete in October 2026. Establishing a clear and predictable
process for algorithm transitions is essential to the long-term security of the root zone, and the
SSAC observes that the proposal addresses the Recommendation 23 of the SSR2 Review
accordingly.
The SSAC notes that the proposal builds upon the Root Zone DNSSEC Algorithm Rollover
Study published by ICANN in May 2024, which assessed resolver and authoritative server
support for alternative algorithms, analyzed rollover methodologies, and evaluated operational
risks. The SSAC finds that the proposal implements the study’s recommendations. The SSAC also notes that this proposal is consistent with the SSAC’s prior work on DNSSEC key rollover,
including SAC063, SAC073, SAC102, and SAC108.
The SSAC encourages ICANN to proceed with this rollover. Specific comments on the
proposal’s methodology, timeline, and operational readiness follow
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MoGen: Detailed Neuronal Morphology Generation via Point Cloud Flow Matching
Franz Rieger
International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) (2026)
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Biological neurons come in many shapes. High-fidelity generative modeling of their varied morphologies is challenging yet underexplored in neuroscience, and crucial for the subfield of connectomics. We introduce MoGen (Neuronal Morphology Generation), a flow matching model to generate high-resolution 3D point clouds of mouse cortex axon and dendrite fragments. This is enabled by an adaptation that injects local geometric context into a scalable latent transformer backbone, allowing for the generation of high-fidelity, realistic samples. To assess MoGen's generation quality, we propose a dedicated evaluation suite with interpretable geometric and topological features tailored to neuronal structures that we validate in a user study. MoGen's practical utility is showcased through controllable generation for visualization via smooth interpolation and a direct downstream application: we augment the training set of a shape plausibility classifier from a production connectomics neuron reconstruction pipeline with millions of generated samples, thereby improving classifier accuracy and reducing the number of remaining split and merge errors by 4.4%. We estimate this can reduce manual proofreading labor by over 157 person-years for reconstruction of a full mouse brain.
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Accurate human genome analysis with Element Avidity sequencing
Andrew Carroll
Daniel Cook
Lucas Brambrink
Bryan Lajoie
Kelly N. Wiseman
Sophie Billings
Semyon Kruglyak
Bryan R. Lajoie
Junhua Zhao
Shawn E. Levy
Kishwar Shafin
Maria Nattestad
BMC Bioinformatics (2025)
Preview abstract
We investigate the new sequencing technology Avidity from Element Biosciences. We show that Avidity whole genome sequencing matches mapping and variant calling accuracy with Illumina at high coverages (30x-50x) and is noticeably more accurate at lower coverages (20x-30x). We quantify base error rates of Element reads, finding lower error rates, especially in homopolymer and tandem repeat regions. We use Element’s ability to generate paired end sequencing with longer insert sizes than typical short–read sequencing. We show that longer insert sizes result in even higher accuracy, with long insert Element sequencing giving noticeably more accurate genome analyses at all coverages.
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Gemini & Physical World: Large Language Models Can Estimate the Intensity of Earthquake Shaking from Multi-Modal Social Media Posts
Marc Stogaitis
Tajinder Gadh
Richard Allen
Alexei Barski
Robert Bosch
Patrick Robertson
Youngmin Cho
Nivetha Thiruverahan
Aman Raj
Geophysical Journal International (2025), ggae436
Preview abstract
This paper presents a novel approach for estimating the ground shaking intensity using real-time social media data and CCTV footage. Employing the Gemini 1.5 Pro’s (Reid et al. 2024) model, a multi-modal language model, we demonstrate the ability to extract relevant information from unstructured data utilizing generative AI and natural language processing. The model’s output, in the form of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values, align well with independent observational data. Furthermore, our results suggest that beyond its advanced visual and auditory understanding abilities, Gemini appears to utilize additional sources of knowledge, including a simplified understanding of the general relationship between earthquake magnitude, distance, and MMI intensity, which it presumably acquired during its training, in its reasoning and decision-making processes. These findings raise intriguing questions about the extent of Gemini's general understanding of the physical world and its phenomena. Gemini’s ability to generate results consistent with established scientific knowledge highlights the potential of LLMs like Gemini in augmenting our understanding of complex physical phenomena such as earthquakes. More specifically, the results of this study highlight the potential of LLMs like Gemini to revolutionize citizen seismology by enabling rapid, effective, and flexible analysis of crowdsourced data from eyewitness accounts for assessing earthquake impact and providing crisis situational awareness. This approach holds a great promise for improving early warning systems, disaster response, and overall resilience in earthquake-prone regions. This study provides a significant step toward harnessing the power of social media and AI for earthquake disaster mitigation.
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Unprecedented Insights into Maternal Sleep: A Large-scale Longitudinal Analysis of Real-world Wearable Device Data Before, During, and After Pregnancy
Nichole Young-Lin
Conor Heneghan
Logan Schneider
Logan Niehaus
Ariel Haney
Karla Gleichauf
Jacqueline Shreibati
Belen Lafon
Lancet eBioMedicine (2025)
Preview abstract
Introduction: Current understanding of pregnancy and postpartum sleep is driven by limited lab or self-reported data. Consumer wearable devices may help reveal longitudinal, real-world sleep patterns.
Methods: We analyzed de-identified wearable device data from 2,540 users in the United States and Canada who met strict wear-time requirements (≥80% daily usage for ≥80% of the time periods of interest [12 weeks prepregnancy, throughout pregnancy, and 20 weeks immediately postpartum]). We tracked sleep time and staging using Fitbit devices.
Results: Compared to prepregnancy, total sleep time (TST) increased from an average of 425.3±43.5 min to a peak of 447.6±47.6 min at gestational week 10 with ongoing declines throughout pregnancy. Time in bed (TIB) followed a similar pattern. Increased light sleep drove the initial TST rise. Deep and REM sleep decreased significantly throughout pregnancy, with maximum reductions of 19.2±13.8 min (p<0.01) and 9.0±19.2 min (p<0.01) respectively by pregnancy end. Sleep efficiency also declined slightly during pregnancy (median drop from 88.3% to 86.8%). After delivery, TIB remained below the prepregnancy baseline by 14.7±45.7 min at one year postpartum and 15.2±47.7 min at 1.5 years postpartum.
Conclusion: This unprecedented look at large-scale, real-world sleep and pregnancy patterns revealed a previously unquantified initial increase in sleep followed by decreases in both quantity and quality as pregnancy progresses. Sleep deficits persist for at least 1.5 years postpartum. These quantified trends can assist clinicians and patients in understanding what to expect.
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IM-DD vs. Coherent in Datacenters: A Revisit in 2025
Optical Fiber Communication (OFC) Conference 2025 (2025)
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This tutorial examines the progress and scaling limitations of IM-DD based optical technologies and explores how datacenter use cases optimized coherent technology, including a newly proposed polarization-folding, time-diversity approach and a novel single-sideband coherent detection technology—can address some of these challenges
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Preview abstract
As part of Google's ongoing efforts to define best practices for secure AI systems, we’re sharing our aspirational framework for secure AI agents. We advocate for a hybrid, defense-in-depth strategy that combines the strengths of traditional, deterministic security controls with dynamic, reasoning-based defenses. This approach is grounded in three core principles: agents must have well-defined human controllers, their powers must be carefully limited, and their actions and planning must be observable. This paper reflects our current thinking and the direction of our efforts as we work towards ensuring that AI agents can be powerful, useful, and secure by default.
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ReviewCoin: Paying for Real Work
arXiv, Google Research (2025)
Preview abstract
The peer-review process is broken and the problem is getting worse, especially in AI: large conferences like NeurIPS increasingly struggle to adequately review huge numbers of paper submissions. I propose a scalable solution that, foremost, recognizes reviewing as important, necessary, \emph{work} and rewards it with crypto-coins owned and managed by the conferences themselves. The idea is at its core quite simple: paper submissions require work (reviews, meta-reviews, etc.) to be done, and therefore the submitter must pay for that work. Each reviewer submits their review to be approved by some designated conference officer (e.g. PC chair, Area Chair, etc.), and upon approval is paid a single coin for a single review. If three reviews are required, the cost of submission should be three coins + a tax that covers payments to all the volunteers who organize the conference. After some one-time startup costs to fairly distribute coins, the process should be relatively stable with new coins minted only when a conference grows.
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Simulation-Based Inference: A Practical Guide
Michael Deistler
Jan Boelts
Peter Steinbach
Guy Moss
Thomas Moreau
Manuel Gloeckler
Pedro L. C. Rodriguez
Julia Linhart
Janne K. Lappalainen
Benjamin Kurt Miller
Pedro J. Goncalves
Cornelius Schröder
Jakob H. Macke
arXiv (2025)
Preview abstract
A central challenge in many areas of science and engineering is to identify model parameters that are consistent with empirical data and prior knowledge. Bayesian inference offers a principled framework for this task, but can be computationally prohibitive when models are defined by stochastic simulators. Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) provides a suite of methods to overcome this limitation and has enabled scientific discoveries in fields such as particle physics, astrophysics and neuroscience. The core idea of SBI is to train neural networks on data generated by a simulator, without requiring access to likelihood evaluations. Once trained, the neural network can rapidly perform inference on empirical observations without requiring additional optimization or simulations. In this tutorial, we provide a practical guide for practitioners aiming to apply SBI methods. We outline a structured SBI workflow and offer practical guidelines and diagnostic tools for every stage of the process--from setting up the simulator and prior, choosing the SBI method and neural network architecture, training the inference model, to validating results and interpreting the inferred parameters. We illustrate these steps through examples from astrophysics, psychophysics, and neuroscience. This tutorial empowers researchers to apply state-of-the-art SBI methods, facilitating efficient parameter inference for scientific discovery.
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Consideration on CMAS arriving as discrete particles
Eric H. Jordan
Stephen Jordan
Hiram Diaz
Byung-gun Jun
(2025)
Preview abstract
Turbine contaminants known as CMAS mostly arrive as individual particles in a range of mineral compositions to turbine hot sections where they are deposited and within a small area can be treated as arriving at random locations as splats. By the time the particles reach the hot section the particle size maximum is believed to be 10 microns. Using a simplified heat transfer analysis suggests the arriving temperature will be the turbine inlet temperature. Using AFRL03 as a representative set of possible minerals, for most turbine inlet temperatures a mixture of melted and un-melted particles will arrive. There are 31 combinations of the 5 minerals of AFRL03 presenting a wide range of melting points experimentally investigated in this paper. As expected, combinations generally melt at lower temperatures than the highest melting mineral in each combination. The progression of conditions starting with the arrival of isolated individual minerals is modeled using monte carlo simulations and known materials from percolation theory. This allows understanding of the development of coverage fraction and potential for mineral mixing important to melt behavior as a function of normalized CMAS dose. Using the normalized CMAS dose it is also possible to comment on the likely relative fraction of coating life during which less than fully homogenized CMAS dominates behavior. It is noteworthy that 4 out of 5 minerals and 4 mineral combinations lack either calcium or silicon or both and also melt below 1300°C. Interaction in the early deposition stage involves non CMAS like chemistries.
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Towards AI-assisted academic writing
Malcolm Kane
Madeleine Grunde-McLaughlin
Ian Lang
Proceedings of the 1st Workshop on AI and Scientific Discovery: Directions and Opportunities, Association for Computational Linguistics (2025), pp. 31-45
Preview abstract
We present components of an AI-assisted academic writing system including citation recommendation and introduction writing. The system recommends citations by considering the user’s current document context to provide relevant suggestions. It generates introductions in a structured fashion, situating the contributions of the research relative to prior work. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the components through quantitative evaluations. Finally, the paper presents qualitative research exploring how researchers incorporate citations into their writing workflows. Our findings indicate that there is demand for precise AI-assisted writing systems and simple, effective methods for meeting those needs.
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Preview abstract
The need for characterizing global variability of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is quickly increasing, with a growing urgency for tracking greenhouse gasses with sufficient resolution, precision and accuracy so as to support independent verification of CO2 fluxes at local to global scales. The current generation of space-based sensors, however, can only provide sparse observations in space and/or in time, by design. While upcoming missions may address some of these challenges, most are still years away from launch. This challenge has fueled interest in the potential use of data from existing missions originally developed for other applications for inferring global greenhouse gas variability.
The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-East), operational since 2017, provides full coverage of much of the western hemisphere at 10-minute intervals from geostationary orbit at 16 wavelengths. We leverage this high temporal resolution by developing a single-pixel, fully-connected neural network to estimate dry-air column CO2 mole fractions (XCO2). The model employs a time series of GOES-East's 16 spectral bands, which aids in disentangling atmospheric CO2 from surface reflectance, alongside ECMWF ERA5 lower tropospheric meteorology, solar angles, and day of year. Training used collocated GOES-East and OCO-2/OCO-3 observations (2017-2020, within 5 km and 10 minutes), with validation and testing performed on 2021 data.
The model successfully captures monthly latitudinal XCO2 gradients and shows reasonable agreement with ground-based TCCON measurements. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model's ability to detect elevated XCO2 signals from high-emitting power plants, particularly over low-reflectance surfaces. We also confirm that removing bands 5 (1.6 µm) and 16 (13.3 µm) substantially decreases performance, indicating that the model is able to extract useful information from these bands.
Although GOES-East derived XCO2 precision may not rival dedicated instruments, its unprecedented combination of contiguous geographic coverage, 10-minute temporal frequency, and multi-year record offers the potential to observe aspects of atmospheric CO2 variability currently unseen from space, with further potential through spatio-temporal aggregation.
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