Benchmarking and improving algorithms for attributing satellite-observed contrails to flights

Condensation trail (contrail) cirrus clouds cause a substantial fraction of aviation's climate impact. One proposed method for the mitigation of this impact involves modifying flight paths to avoid particular regions of the atmosphere that are conducive to the formation of persistent contrails, which can transform into contrail cirrus. Determining the success of such avoidance maneuvers can be achieved by ascertaining which flight formed each nearby contrail observed in satellite imagery. The same process can be used to assess the skill of contrail forecast models. The problem of contrail-to-flight attribution is complicated by several factors, such as the time required for a contrail to become visible in satellite imagery, high air traffic densities, and errors in wind data. Recent work has introduced automated algorithms for solving the attribution problem, but it lacks an evaluation against ground-truth data. In this work, we present a method for producing synthetic contrail detections with predetermined contrail-to-flight attributions that can be used to evaluate – or “benchmark” – and improve such attribution algorithms. The resulting performance metrics can be employed to understand the implications of using these observational data in downstream tasks, such as forecast model evaluation and the analysis of contrail avoidance trials, although the metrics do not directly quantify real-world performance. We also introduce a novel, highly scalable contrail-to-flight attribution algorithm that leverages the characteristic compounding of error induced by simulating contrail advection using numerical weather models. The benchmark shows an improvement of approximately 25 % in precision versus previous contrail-to-flight attribution algorithms, without compromising recall.