How to deal w___ missing input data

Deep learning hydrologic models have made their way from research to applications. More and more national hydrometeorological agencies, hydro power operators, and engineering consulting companies are building Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for operational use cases. All of these efforts come across similar sets of challenges – challenges that are different from those in controlled scientific studies. In this paper, we tackle one of these issues: how to deal with missing input data? Operational systems depend on the real-time availability of various data products – most notably, meteorological forcings. The more external dependencies a model has, however, the more likely it is to experience an outage in one of them. We introduce and compare three different solutions that can generate predictions even when some of the meteorological input data do not arrive in time, or not arrive at all: First, input replacing, which imputes missing values with a fixed number; second, masked mean, which averages embeddings of the forcings that are available at a given time step; third, attention, a generalization of the masked mean mechanism that dynamically weights the embeddings. We compare the approaches in different missing data scenarios and find that, by a small margin, the masked mean approach tends to perform best.