Origin-destination travel demand estimation: an approach that scales worldwide, and its application to five metropolitan highway networks
Abstract
Estimating Origin-Destination (OD) travel demand is vital for effective urban planning
and traffic management. Developing universally applicable OD estimation
methodologies is significantly challenged by the pervasive scarcity of high-fidelity traffic
data and the difficulty in obtaining city-specific prior OD estimates (or seed ODs), which
are often prerequisite for traditional approaches. Our proposed method directly
estimates OD travel demand by systematically leveraging aggregated, anonymized
statistics from Google Maps Traffic Trends, obviating the need for conventional census
or city-provided OD data. The OD demand is estimated by formulating a single-level,
one-dimensional, continuous nonlinear optimization problem with nonlinear equality
and bound constraints to replicate highway path travel times. The method achieves
efficiency and scalability by employing a differentiable analytical macroscopic network
model. This model by design is computationally lightweight, distinguished by its
parsimonious parameterization that requires minimal calibration effort and its capacity
for instantaneous evaluation. These attributes ensure the method's broad applicability
and practical utility across diverse cities globally. Using segment sensor counts from
Los Angeles and San Diego highway networks, we validate our proposed approach,
demonstrating a two-thirds to three-quarters improvement in the fit to segment count
data over a baseline. Beyond validation, we establish the method's scalability and
robust performance in replicating path travel times across diverse highway networks,
including Seattle, Orlando, Denver, Philadelphia, and Boston. In these expanded
evaluations, our method not only aligns with simulation-based benchmarks but also
achieves an average 13% improvement in it's ability to fit travel time data compared to
the baseline during afternoon peak hours.
and traffic management. Developing universally applicable OD estimation
methodologies is significantly challenged by the pervasive scarcity of high-fidelity traffic
data and the difficulty in obtaining city-specific prior OD estimates (or seed ODs), which
are often prerequisite for traditional approaches. Our proposed method directly
estimates OD travel demand by systematically leveraging aggregated, anonymized
statistics from Google Maps Traffic Trends, obviating the need for conventional census
or city-provided OD data. The OD demand is estimated by formulating a single-level,
one-dimensional, continuous nonlinear optimization problem with nonlinear equality
and bound constraints to replicate highway path travel times. The method achieves
efficiency and scalability by employing a differentiable analytical macroscopic network
model. This model by design is computationally lightweight, distinguished by its
parsimonious parameterization that requires minimal calibration effort and its capacity
for instantaneous evaluation. These attributes ensure the method's broad applicability
and practical utility across diverse cities globally. Using segment sensor counts from
Los Angeles and San Diego highway networks, we validate our proposed approach,
demonstrating a two-thirds to three-quarters improvement in the fit to segment count
data over a baseline. Beyond validation, we establish the method's scalability and
robust performance in replicating path travel times across diverse highway networks,
including Seattle, Orlando, Denver, Philadelphia, and Boston. In these expanded
evaluations, our method not only aligns with simulation-based benchmarks but also
achieves an average 13% improvement in it's ability to fit travel time data compared to
the baseline during afternoon peak hours.
