Stephan Hoyer
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Neural general circulation models for weather and climate
Dmitrii Kochkov
Janni Yuval
Jamie Smith
Griffin Mooers
Milan Kloewer
James Lottes
Peter Dueben
Samuel Hatfield
Peter Battaglia
Alvaro Sanchez
Matthew Willson
Nature, 632 (2024), pp. 1060-1066
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General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators that combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine-learning models trained on reanalysis data have achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present a GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with machine-learning components and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best machine-learning and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with machine-learning models for one- to ten-day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for one- to fifteen-day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140-kilometre resolution show emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs, although our model does not extrapolate to substantially different future climates. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.
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DySLIM: Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure for Chaotic Systems
Yair Schiff
Jeff Parker
Volodymyr Kuleshov
International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) (2024)
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Learning dynamics from dissipative chaotic systems is notoriously difficult due to their inherent instability, as formalized by their positive Lyapunov exponents, which exponentially amplify errors in the learned dynamics. However, many of these systems exhibit ergodicity and an attractor: a compact and highly complex manifold, to which trajectories converge in finite-time, that supports an invariant measure, i.e., a probability distribution that is invariant under the action of the dynamics, which dictates the long-term statistical behavior of the system. In this work, we leverage this structure to propose a new framework that targets learning the invariant measure as well as the dynamics, in contrast with typical methods that only target the misfit between trajectories, which often leads to divergence as the trajectories’ length increases. We use our framework to propose a tractable and sample efficient objective that can be used with any existing learning objectives. Our Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure (DySLIM) objective enables model training that achieves better point-wise tracking and long-term statistical accuracy relative to other learning objectives. By targeting the distribution with a scalable regularization term, we hope that this approach can be extended to more complex systems exhibiting slowly-variant distributions, such as weather and climate models. Code to reproduce our experiments is available here: https://github.com/google-research/swirl-dynamics/tree/main/swirl_dynamics/projects/ergodic.
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WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models
Alex Merose
Peter Battaglia
Tyler Russell
Alvaro Sanchez
Vivian Yang
Matthew Chantry
Zied Ben Bouallegue
Peter Dueben
Carla Bromberg
Jared Sisk
Luke Barrington
Aaron Bell
arXiv (2023) (to appear)
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WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.
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Distributed Data Processing for Large-Scale Simulations on Cloud
Lily Hu
TJ Lu
Yi-fan Chen
2021 IEEE INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON ELECTROMAGNETIC COMPATIBILITY, SIGNAL & POWER INTEGRITY (2021) (to appear)
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In this work, we proposed a distributed data pipeline for large-scale simulations by using libraries and frameworks available on Cloud services. The data pipeline is designed with careful considerations for the characteristics of the simulation data. The implementation of the data pipeline is with Apache Beam and Zarr. Beam is a unified, open-source programming model for building both batch- and streaming-data parallel-processing pipelines. By using Beam, one can simply focus on the logical composition of the data processing task and bypass the low-level details of distributed computing. The orchestration of distributed processing is fully managed by the runner, in this work, Dataflow on Google Cloud. Beam separates the programming layer from the runtime layer such that the proposed pipeline can be executed across various runners. The storage format of the output tensor of the data pipeline is Zarr.
Zarr allows concurrent reading and writing, storage on a file system, and data compression before the storage. The performance of the data pipeline is analyzed with an example, of which the simulation data is obtained with an in-house developed computational fluid dynamic solver running in parallel on Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) clusters. The performance analysis demonstrates good storage and computational efficiency of the proposed data pipeline.
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Machine learning accelerated computational fluid dynamics
Ayya Alieva
Dmitrii Kochkov
Jamie Alexander Smith
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (2021)
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Numerical simulation of fluids plays an essential role in modeling many physical phenomena, such as in weather, climate, aerodynamics and plasma physics. Fluids are well described by the Navier-Stokes equations, but solving these equations at scale remains daunting, limited by the computational cost of resolving the smallest spatiotemporal features. This leads to unfavorable trade-offs between accuracy and tractability. Here we use end-to-end deep learning to improve approximations inside computational fluid dynamics for modeling two dimensional turbulent flows. For both direct numerical simulation of turbulence and large eddy simulation, our results are as accurate as baseline solvers with 8-16x finer resolution in each spatial dimension, resulting in a 40-400x fold computational speedups. Our method remains stable during long simulations, and generalizes to forcing functions and Reynolds numbers outside of the flows where it is trained, in contrast to black box machine learning approaches. Our approach exemplifies how scientific computing can leverage machine learning and hardware accelerators to improve simulations without sacrificing accuracy or generalization.
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Kohn-Sham equations as regularizer: building prior knowledge into machine-learned physics
Li Li
Ryan Pederson
Patrick Francis Riley
Kieron Burke
Phys. Rev. Lett., 126 (2021), pp. 036401
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Including prior knowledge is important for effective machine learning models in physics and is usually achieved by explicitly adding loss terms or constraints on model architectures. Prior knowledge embedded in the physics computation itself rarely draws attention. We show that solving the Kohn-Sham equations when training neural networks for the exchange-correlation functional provides an implicit regularization that greatly improves generalization. Two separations suffice for learning the entire one-dimensional H$_2$ dissociation curve within chemical accuracy, including the strongly correlated region. Our models also generalize to unseen types of molecules and overcome self-interaction error.
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Machine learning guided aptamer discovery
Ali Bashir
Geoff Davis
Michelle Therese Dimon
Qin Yang
Scott Ferguson
Zan Armstrong
Nature Communications (2021)
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Aptamers are discovered by searching a large library for sequences with desirable binding properties. These libraries, however, are physically constrained to a fraction of the theoretical sequence space and limited to sampling strategies that are easy to scale. Integrating machine learning could enable identification of high-performing aptamers across this unexplored fitness landscape. We employed particle display (PD) to partition aptamers by affinity and trained neural network models to improve physically-derived aptamers and predict affinity in silico. These predictions were used to locally improve physically derived aptamers as well as identify completely novel, high-affinity aptamers de novo. We experimentally validated the predictions, improving aptamer candidate designs at a rate 10-fold higher than random perturbation, and generating novel aptamers at a rate 448-fold higher than PD alone. We characterized the explanatory power of the models globally and locally and showed successful sequence truncation while maintaining affinity. This work combines machine learning and physical discovery, uses principles that are widely applicable to other display technologies, and provides a path forward for better diagnostic and therapeutic agents.
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Profiling cellular phenotypes from microscopic imaging can provide meaningful biological information resulting from various factors affecting the cells. One motivating application is drug development: morphological cell features can be captured from images, from which similarities between different drug compounds applied at different doses can be quantified. The general approach is to find a function mapping the images to an embedding space of manageable dimensionality whose geometry captures relevant features of the input images. An important known issue for such methods is separating relevant biological signal from nuisance variation. For example, the embedding vectors tend to be more correlated for cells that were cultured and imaged during the same week than for those from different weeks, despite having identical drug compounds applied in both cases. In this case, the particular batch in which a set of experiments were conducted constitutes the domain of the data; an ideal set of image embeddings should contain only the relevant biological information (e.g., drug effects). We develop a general framework for adjusting the image embeddings in order to “forget” domain-specific information while preserving relevant biological information. To achieve this, we minimize a loss function based on distances between marginal distributions (such as the Wasserstein distance) of embeddings across domains for each replicated treatment. For the dataset we present results with, the only replicated treatment happens to be the negative control treatment, for which we do not expect any treatment-induced cell morphology changes. We find that for our transformed embeddings (i) the underlying geometric structure is not only preserved but the embeddings also carry improved biological signal; and (ii) less domain-specific information is present.
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Inundation Modeling in Data Scarce Regions
Vova Anisimov
Yusef Shafi
Sella Nevo
Artificial Intelligence for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response Workshop (2019)
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Flood forecasts are crucial for effective individual and governmental protective action. The vast majority of flood-related casualties occur in developing countries, where providing spatially accurate forecasts is a challenge due to scarcity of data and lack of funding. This paper describes an operational system providing flood extent forecast maps covering several flood-prone regions in India, with the goal of being sufficiently scalable and cost-efficient to facilitate the establishment of effective flood forecasting systems globally.
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Learning data-driven discretizations for partial differential equations
Yohai bar Sinai
Jason Hickey
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019), pp. 201814058
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The numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) is challenging because of the need to resolve spatiotemporal features over wide length- and timescales. Often, it is computationally intractable to resolve the finest features in the solution. The only recourse is to use approximate coarse-grained representations, which aim to accurately represent long-wavelength dynamics while properly accounting for unresolved small-scale physics. Deriving such coarse-grained equations is notoriously difficult and often ad hoc. Here we introduce data-driven discretization, a method for learning optimized approximations to PDEs based on actual solutions to the known underlying equations. Our approach uses neural networks to estimate spatial derivatives, which are optimized end to end to best satisfy the equations on a low-resolution grid. The resulting numerical methods are remarkably accurate, allowing us to integrate in time a collection of nonlinear equations in 1 spatial dimension at resolutions 4x to 8x coarser than is possible with standard finite-difference methods.
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